AGP Executive Report

Central Banking & Markets: Singapore’s MAS posted FY2025/26 net profit of S$20.0B, driven by S$39.8B investment gains, while a stronger Singapore dollar cut results via S$16.4B in currency translation effects. Regional Growth Outlook: AMRO lifted its ASEAN+3 2026 growth forecast to 4.1%, citing AI-driven demand that offsets Middle East-related headwinds. India Payments & Regulation: India’s Delhi High Court ordered the winding up of Paytm Payments Bank, appointing a former SBI executive as liquidator after RBI cancelled the licence. India Currency Modernisation: India approved RBI field trials of 2B polymer notes (Rs 10 and Rs 20), with paper currency to continue alongside any future rollout. AI & Semiconductors: Nvidia slid nearly 5% as reports linked it to very large AI financing/guarantee discussions, reviving “circular financing” concerns; chip selloffs also pressured regional tech sentiment. Trade & Industry: China welcomed a WTO ruling backing its case against Türkiye’s vehicle restrictions; separately, Thailand’s Metal Thailand 2026 will push green and smart manufacturing across ASEAN. Corporate/Finance: Cheer Holding reported stronger margins and AI progress in its first-half results, despite revenue pressure from macro headwinds. Energy & Commodities: Malaysia’s rubber market ended mixed as weaker crude oil and US-China trade tensions weighed on sentiment.

Air India turnaround timeline: Tata Sons’ N. Chandrasekaran says Air India’s recovery could take 5–10 years as FY26 losses more than doubled to Rs 22,238 crore and supply-chain, fleet and staffing issues weigh on the plan. ASEAN anti-corruption push: Malaysia’s MACC says Timor-Leste’s entry into ASEAN-PAC should deepen regional corruption-fighting, while its KWAP retirement-fund probe is seeking documents via mutual legal assistance from Dubai, Singapore and Indonesia. Philippines bond demand: BDO raised ₱132bn via its sixth ASEAN sustainability bond issue, closing early on strong retail and institutional demand; proceeds will back eligible sustainable assets and lending. Singapore alternatives expansion: Bank of Singapore appoints Benjamin Low to lead alternative investments from 17 August, as private-market demand rises among wealthy Asian clients. Asia chip shock: Nvidia’s slide and fears over AI financing and China competition hit chip stocks across Asia, even as China’s CXMT surged 466% on its Shanghai debut—while reports of China producing DUV lithography tools rattled ASML-linked sentiment. India aviation-finance angle: Separate coverage highlights Air India’s FY26 net loss and the long-horizon transformation message to shareholders. Korea retail ETF curbs: South Korea’s regulator may cap single-stock leveraged ETF exposure for retail investors if needed, after raising required cash deposits. Cambodia investment signal: MinebeaMitsumi’s CEO met Cambodia’s PM, citing plans to inaugurate a new factory and further expand investment.

Semiconductors & Markets: China’s CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) rocketed about 466% on its Shanghai debut, vaulting to the mainland’s most valuable listed company and reigniting AI-driven memory demand—while also triggering a sector selloff that hit Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix. Banking & Cyber Risk: India’s Bank of Baroda is investigating claims of a roughly 1TB data leak on the dark web, with reports pointing to customer and corporate banking records plus Aadhaar-linked details. Banking Governance: HDFC Bank penalised top executives over the MSRDC deposit review, framing the conduct as “business overreach” after an internal board probe. Central Banking & FX: Pakistan’s central bank held its policy rate at 11.50% as US-Iran tensions threaten energy costs; meanwhile, rupee rates showed a modest weakening bias. ASEAN Economics: Philippines growth outlook stays soft—AMRO flags the country as potentially among ASEAN’s slowest growers, citing oil shock exposure and a weak investment climate. Trade & Diplomacy: India and China will resume border trade from Aug 1 via Nathu La and Lipulekh, as ties continue normalising. Green Finance: A push for green capital is framed as a practical enabler for India’s MSMEs, linking sustainability to lower costs and better access to value chains. Corporate Finance: Audi cut its annual outlook on tougher China conditions and West Asia-related risks; in Malaysia, Oriental Interest proposed acquiring Chin Hin (Jitra) and CHJ Motor for RM280m. AI Infrastructure Finance: Nvidia is reported to be in talks to back OpenAI’s mega data-centre financing with a ~$250bn guarantee.

Semiconductor Boom: China’s CXMT, the mainland’s biggest memory-chip IPO, surged over 470% on Shanghai’s STAR debut, lifting valuation to about 3.3tn yuan and making it the most valuable listed firm in China—an AI-driven bet on domestic chip self-sufficiency. Central Banking Shock: Indonesia’s central bank governor Perry Warjiyo resigned early, with deputy Destry Damayanti stepping in, raising fresh questions on currency stability and central bank independence. Banking Flows in Focus: India’s FCNR(B) inflows are projected to reach $65-70bn by scheme end and $80-85bn overall, with SBI Research pointing to strong mobilisation by public sector banks. FX/Inflation Watch: Japan’s services producer prices rose 3.2% as Iran-linked freight costs spiked, keeping markets focused on potential BOJ rate-hike signals. Deal & Funding: SoftBank secured a $40bn bridge loan for its OpenAI follow-on investment, underscoring how Asia’s banks are financing AI scale-ups. Regulatory Pressure: China fined Trip.com $767.9m for abusing dominance in hotel booking, ordering refunds, forfeitures and penalties. Wealth Management: RBC Wealth Management added six senior private bankers across Hong Kong and Singapore to expand Asia advisory coverage.

ASEAN Anti-Corruption Push: Malaysia’s MACC will host the 22nd ASEAN Parties Against Corruption (ASEAN-PAC) Secretariat Meeting in Melaka (July 28-30), bringing together anti-graft agencies across the region plus UNODC, OECD, ADB and IAACA to share best practices and tighten cross-border enforcement. Bangladesh Investment Drive: Foreign Affairs State Minister Shama Obaed says Dhaka is stepping up efforts to attract investment to reach a $1tn economy by 2034, with roundtables involving BIDA and partners from China, Japan and the US; blue economy projects are a key priority. Bangladesh Financial Credibility: Dr Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir says harmonised fiscal-monetary policy, central bank autonomy, stable tax rules and forensic audits underpin rebuilding investor confidence and a bank recap plan. India Crypto Compliance: CBDT issues new guidance for crypto tax reporting, placing compliance duties on crypto service providers and clarifying cross-jurisdiction reporting under the Income Tax Rules, 2026. Markets Watch Fed/Oil: Gold and silver face a volatile week as traders track the US Fed decision, crude moves and West Asia tensions. DeepSeek Fundraising Pause: China’s DeepSeek tells prospective investors it is suspending its second fundraising round, after viral comments tied to founder Liang Wenfeng. China Financial Purge: Reuters reports former China securities regulator Fang Xinghai is under investigation in Shanghai, the latest hit in Beijing’s financial-sector anti-corruption campaign. Typhoon Noul Disruption: China evacuates hundreds of thousands as Typhoon Noul nears/strikes southern regions, with major flight cancellations and flooding alerts.

Typhoon Noul Disrupts Finance Hubs: Typhoon Noul made landfall in southern China, forcing the relocation of 340,000 people and triggering heavy rain and gale-force winds across Guangdong and Hong Kong, with major flight cancellations and suspended rail services. Japan Gold Scam Shift: Tokyo police warn that tougher checks on bank accounts are pushing scammers toward gold bullion schemes, with victims losing tens of millions since 2025. India FPI Inflows Get a Boost From Chip Trade Slowdown: A global semiconductor slowdown is improving India’s appeal; FPIs invested Rs 14,945 crore in equities through July 24, with debt inflows also staying healthy as tax reforms improve overseas access. China Growth Split, Fitch Sees Export Cushion: Fitch says China’s export-heavy sectors (EVs, batteries, advanced manufacturing) and AI-linked investment are cushioning weak domestic demand, even as property and consumption remain under pressure. IDFC First Bank Profit Surge: IDFC First Bank reported its highest-ever quarterly profit, with June quarter net profit more than doubling to Rs 1,075 crore on stronger net interest income and lower provisions. ASEAN Cybercrime Push: ASEAN police chiefs backed a regional task force to fight online scams via a shared digital platform, aiming to tighten cross-border coordination. India Paper-Leak Crackdown Moves Back to Parliament: India’s monsoon session is set to resume after Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation, with a Public Examinations (Prevention of Unfair Means) Amendment Bill expected in Lok Sabha to curb future leaks.

Typhoon Noul Disrupts China: China evacuated 340,000 people and suspended work, rail and classes across Guangdong and nearby provinces as the storm nears Hong Kong, where shelters were opened and flight cancellations announced. India-UK Trade Boost: India’s new UK FTA is expected to nearly double bilateral trade to about $115bn by 2030, with 700,000–1m jobs projected, but firms will need to meet quality, certification and sustainability rules. ICICI Bank Offshore Funding: ICICI Bank raised $1bn via a five-year US dollar bond, oversubscribed at 2.3x, underscoring investor appetite for Indian bank credit. India WTO Scrutiny: WTO members questioned India’s trade framework, including PLI and QCOs, as India defended its approach as WTO-consistent while citing development goals. China–Kyrgyz Cooperation: Chinese FM Wang Yi met Kyrgyz counterparts, focusing on trade, joint projects and infrastructure like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. Sabah Maritime & Education Moves: Malaysia commissioned patrol vessel KM BENDAHARA to bolster Sabah and South China Sea enforcement, while Sabah increased funding for Chinese schools and non-Muslim religious bodies to RM90m. Market Call: BCA Research suggested a short-term pivot from South Korea to Chinese equities over three months, citing mean reversion after China’s selloff.

South China Sea Diplomacy: ASEAN and China are pushing to wrap up a long-awaited Code of Conduct by year-end, but legal and coverage disagreements still look unresolved. India Banking & Fraud: India’s Enforcement Directorate detained a Dubai resident in a crypto-hawala probe tied to illicit narcotics funds, with alleged links spanning Brazil and Thailand. India KYC Overhaul: India’s CKYC 2.0 will let banks, insurers and later capital markets firms pull customer data from a central registry with consent, starting in August. Banking Results: Bank of India reported a strong Q1 FY27 net profit jump (about +36%) alongside improved asset quality; Container Corporation of India posted steady Q1 profit growth and declared an interim dividend. Corporate/Markets: Japan business leaders warned Trump tariff add-ons could hit global manufacturing; Nestlé’s H1 showed stronger internal growth but profit pressured by currency and costs. Investments & IPOs: Temasek-backed Manipal Health filed India’s biggest healthcare IPO, targeting Rs 9,275 crore. ASEAN Education: Education ministers met in Singapore to advance the regional education agenda, including an AI-in-education work plan.

South China Sea Diplomacy: The US told ASEAN it will keep operating in international waters and said any ASEAN-China Code of Conduct must not undermine US interests, as talks accelerate in Manila. China Tax Crackdown on Offshore Wealth: Beijing will start taxing offshore trusts from Friday, with 20% levies on asset appreciation and annual trust income, aiming to close a long-used loophole. China Financial Market Reform: China’s central bank added CNY800bn net liquidity in July and banks in Hainan issued the first DR-linked loans, creating a new lending-rate pricing anchor beyond the Loan Prime Rate. India Flex-Fuel Push: Honda will launch India’s first flex-fuel scooter (ADV 160) compatible up to E85, aligning with ethanol-blending goals to cut oil imports. India Export Boost for MSMEs: India says MSME products were 50.6% of merchandise exports in FY26 and highlights trade-finance and credit-guarantee schemes to deepen global value-chain participation. Corporate/Market Watch: India’s small road transport operators warn of a supply-chain hit as costs rise faster than freight rates; class-action deadlines also surfaced for Futu Holdings investors (Aug 25). Energy Shock Spillover: Russia is reportedly importing petrol via Indian refineries after Ukrainian drone strikes crippled domestic refining, tightening regional fuel competition.

India e-commerce rule change: India eased foreign investment rules so e-commerce firms can buy from Indian sellers and sell to overseas customers, a direct win for Amazon as it targets exports. SEBI portfolio overhaul: SEBI proposed lighter compliance and wider investment options for portfolio managers, including overseas listed securities and unlisted debt, with comments due Aug 13. ACC battery PLI delay: India’s ACC Advanced Chemistry Cell PLI scheme still has zero incentive claims despite ₹5,180 crore invested, as projects remain in commissioning. Healthcare IPO push: Temasek-backed Manipal Health targets up to $8b valuation in an IPO opening July 29, with a 560–590 rupee price band. China liquidity support: China’s PBOC plans a 500b-yuan one-year MLF to keep banking liquidity ample. Japan FX watch: Japan’s finance minister reiterated readiness to act as the yen slid near 40-year lows around 164 per dollar. Crypto regulation in Japan: Japan moves closer to a Bitcoin ETF, with a potential 2028 debut if reforms progress. Cross-border payments: JCB and Fiuu expanded direct acquiring across Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines. US trade pressure on India: The US announced a new 10% tariff on India over forced-labour claims, with more tariffs flagged. Regional risk lens: ASEAN Plus Three foreign ministers warned food and energy security are under severe strain amid Middle East spillovers.

Regulatory Push in India: SEBI proposes easing portfolio manager rules—cutting minimum investment to ₹25 lakh, capping fees at 2.5%, allowing investments in direct mutual funds/ETFs/specialised funds plus overseas listed securities and to-be-listed/unlisted debt (consultation open until Aug 13). Banking Liquidity Watch: China’s PBOC plans a 500bn yuan one-year MLF injection to keep banking liquidity ample, after a 400bn yuan facility matures. Credit Cycle Signal: India’s banks’ credit-to-deposit ratio hits a 62-year high at 82.6% in Q1FY27 as loan growth outpaces deposits. Cross-border Fraud Fight: Indonesia urges the UK and ASEAN partners to boost financial intelligence and law enforcement against online scam syndicates, warning losses could reach $23.6bn annually. E-commerce Export Rule Change: India relaxes foreign e-commerce rules so firms can buy from Indian sellers and sell to overseas customers directly, a win for Amazon. Markets & Oil Backdrop: Asia trades higher as oil rises on West Asia tensions; Brent jumps toward $98. Tech/AI Policy Split: OpenAI and Anthropic back US restrictions on advanced Chinese AI models, while critics warn it’s protectionism. Corporate/Legal Risk: US law firms file class actions targeting Futu Holdings over alleged China regulatory non-compliance; deadlines are set for lead plaintiffs.

ASEAN Energy & Security Talks: In Manila, ASEAN foreign ministers’ meetings with the US and UK put energy and food security front and centre, with the US pledging US$1.5bn for supply chains, aviation infrastructure and LNG market support, while the UK urged renewed momentum amid West Asia tensions. China Digital Buildout: China is accelerating a next-generation communications network—from upgraded 5G and new satellites to coverage in mines and utility tunnels—framed as key digital infrastructure for AI and industrial digitalisation. India Market Plumbing: SEBI is weighing removing upfront margin for early pay-in trades, aiming to boost cash market turnover and widen participation. Banking & Capital Flows: ICICI Bank set initial guidance for a five-year dollar bond after nearly nine years, using a lower-cost hedging facility; Standard Bank became the first African bank authorised to clear renminbi transactions via a joint RMB clearing setup with ICBC. Asia Finance & Risk: UN warns Pacific scam syndicates are increasingly using tech and AI, with 2025 losses across Asia-Pacific estimated at up to US$114.1bn. Property/Logistics Deals: Mapletree Logistics Trust plans to divest China logistics assets and a Singapore warehouse, selling to a renminbi fund tied to its controlling unitholder. Japan-Sri Lanka Infrastructure Fallout: Sri Lanka faces Japan’s request for interest on delayed LRT compensation payments after the project was cancelled. India Policy Pressure: NEET paper leak protests keep escalating in India’s parliament, with MPs pushing for urgent debate and transparency.

Scam Crackdown Watch: UNODC says Asia-Pacific scam losses hit $88bn–$114bn in 2025, with East Asia the biggest share and Southeast Asia still the epicentre as Cambodia pushes enforcement. Geopolitics & Energy Prices: Malaysia raised retail fuel prices from July 23–29 after Brent jumped on West Asia tensions, with RON97/RON95 and diesel all up. ASEAN-US Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told ASEAN the Strait of Hormuz can’t be treated like a toll road, while also reaffirming Washington’s “will never abandon” pledge and $2.5bn strategic investment. ASEAN Energy Security: Cambodia’s FM urges faster ASEAN Petroleum Security and the ASEAN Power Grid, plus more renewables investment. India Policy & Markets: India advanced plans for small modular reactors, targeting at least five by 2033, as RBI data showed FX defence activity amid rupee pressure. Banking & Payments: UOB and Visa upgraded 300,000 UOB Visa Infinite cardholders across ASEAN to new premium tiers. Corporate Finance: Chinese optical parts maker Zhongji Innolight seeks up to HK$55.05bn in a Hong Kong IPO. Tech & Compute: India’s Utho Cloud plans 10,000 GPUs over two years to expand in-country AI infrastructure. Disaster Update: Rescue continues after a Sikkim tunnel collapse tied to NHPC’s Teesta Stage-VI project; 13 bodies recovered and more feared trapped. AI Security Signal: OpenAI admitted its models were used in a hack of Hugging Face, which then turned to a Chinese model for incident response.

Central Banking Watch: Sri Lanka’s central bank kept its Overnight Policy Rate at 8.75% as inflation rose to 6.8% y/y in June, citing Middle East-driven commodity risks and a need to cool credit growth. FX & Trade Shock: The Japanese yen slid to about 163 per dollar for the first time in decades, while Japan logged a 1.01tn yen trade deficit in H1 as oil import costs climbed and the Strait of Hormuz disruption fed inflation pressure. Energy & Markets: Brent pushed back above US$92 amid renewed US-Iran strikes and Red Sea/ Hormuz shipping anxiety, lifting crude-linked costs across Asia. AI & Regulation Pressure: China’s Moonshot AI and Alibaba rolled out new open-weight models (Kimi K3 and Qwen 3.8 tMax), reigniting US policy pressure over AI model theft and regulation. India Flows & Consumer Strain: Foreign portfolio investors returned to India in early July, buying sectors like consumer services, metals and healthcare, even as brokerages warn consumer margins may stay squeezed by Iran-war input costs. Regional Diplomacy: India’s Jaishankar urged deeper India-ASEAN cooperation in Manila, stressing energy, food and health security and the need to protect maritime trade under international law. Banking & Capital Markets: Hong Kong is set to consider hedge-fund tax breaks to attract investment and talent, while HSBC Sri Lanka won Euromoney awards for international banking and securities services.

AI Capital Flows: Nebius shares jumped after Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% stake, spotlighting fresh AI cloud demand and Nvidia’s deeper push into the AI infrastructure chain. US–China Tech Friction: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US is looking into whether Chinese open-source AI models involved “IP theft,” while both sides plan official AI talks in September. Global AI Governance: China unveiled the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO) at the World AI Conference, framing AI diplomacy around standards and capacity-building. Cross-border Payments: Zaggle approved an investment of up to ₹7.97 crore in Unobanc to boost forex and remittances; GlobalPay launched GlobalPay Connect to expand forex card distribution in India. Banking Results: Bandhan Bank reported Q1 FY27 net profit up 35% YoY to ~₹502 crore as provisions fell; SBI Funds Management’s IPO listing drew strong subscription. India EV Push: India reported 52,718 public EV charging stations, including 16,561 fast chargers, with funding via FAME-II and PM E-DRIVE. Regional Finance Crime Focus: BIMSTEC finalized an action plan against illicit financial flows, including AML/CFT capacity building and FIU cooperation. Energy & Trade Pressure: Reuters data showed India’s Middle East crude imports fell ~27% in Apr–Jun as Hormuz disruptions tightened supplies.

Banking & Markets: Japan’s new economic blueprint under PM Sanae Takaichi faces scrutiny as bond yields rise, with language on monetary policy repeatedly tweaked to reassure the BOJ’s independence. Household Finance: India’s household debt is edging back up toward a potential stress point, with RBI flagging rising non-housing retail borrowing and higher-risk lending to lower-income borrowers. Digital Payments: India’s UPI keeps accelerating—55.49 crore registered users and FY25-26 volumes up sharply—while the system expands further abroad. Corporate & Dealmaking: Hungary’s OTP Bank agreed to buy Luminor Bank’s parent, giving it a route across the Baltics; separately, Hungary is investigating BYD’s investment after a former foreign minister joined the automaker. Energy & Infrastructure: India’s green transition may need long-duration storage beyond near-term batteries and pumped hydro; in Sri Lanka, Trincomalee’s oil tank farm development is moving toward international bidding. Regulation & Compliance: Malaysia’s central bank says it will keep gradually liberalising foreign-exchange rules while protecting stability. Crime & Security: A UNODC report warns Southeast Asia’s criminal economy has become more interconnected and tech-driven, threatening governance and economic stability. Tech & Geopolitics: The US DOJ opened a compliance review into Harvard’s China-linked financial aid, raising civil-rights concerns.