AGP Executive Report

BoJ Watch: The Bank of Japan is widely expected to lift rates again to 1.25% on Friday as energy-driven inflation and a weaker yen keep pressure on policymakers, with markets also bracing for the Fed decision. Hong Kong Tech Push: Hong Kong unveiled its first five-year plan to boost innovation spending and broaden the city beyond finance, including higher R&D targets and a push to develop the Northern Metropolis. India External Sector: India’s balance of payments swung to a $20.8bn surplus in July, while the current account deficit widened to $7bn as the merchandise trade gap grew. India Trade: India’s exports jumped 26% in August as US tariffs eased, but rice shipments rose only 2.1% amid West Asia shipping disruptions and higher freight/insurance costs. Japan Trade: Japan logged a 7.1bn USD trade deficit in August as oil imports rose, even as exports grew on semiconductors and autos. Deal Flow (APAC Finance): Grab agreed to buy a controlling stake in Atome Financial for $1.49bn to expand consumer lending across Southeast Asia; Apollo also backed Hong Kong’s The Executive Centre with $584m financing. Capital Markets: India’s Hero Motors raised about ₹300 crore from anchor investors ahead of its IPO opening today, while Japan’s tax agency plans a major overhaul of inheritance valuation rules for unlisted shares. Regional Connectivity: China’s 134.2-km Pinglu river-to-sea canal is now operational, cutting inland shipping distance to the sea and strengthening trade links with ASEAN.

UPI Fees Update (India): India’s UPI will start charging merchants a fractional fee for certain payments above Rs 2,000 from Oct 15, while consumers keep paying nothing; the NPCI set a 0.4% MDR cap (Rs 300 per transaction) and a different Rs 5 structure for categories like railways, telecom, insurance and fuel. Market Flows (India): Foreign portfolio investors sold nearly Rs 5,109 crore of Indian government securities in three days under the fully accessible route, citing crude near $110, US yields around 5% and rupee pressure. Trade & Policy (India-EU): India is stepping up CBAM support for exporters, focusing on emissions measurement capacity and handholding plus financial aid for smaller firms. Regional Finance & Resilience (ASEAN-Philippines): Philippines President Marcos Jr urged ASEAN to move from disaster response to anticipatory action, including people-centered multi-hazard early warning systems. Fintech & Capital Markets (Saudi): Money20/20 Middle East opened in Riyadh with major fintech announcements, including Tabby’s Series F and Silq’s partnership. Corporate & Aviation (Canada): Harbour Air agreed to acquire Pacific Coastal Airlines to build a larger B.C. regional airline group, pending approvals. AI Funding (China): Ligent Technologies plans to raise up to $727m via an HK share offering to expand optical chip and transceiver capacity. US-China Sanctions Talks: US Treasury chief Bessent said he will meet China’s He Lifeng this weekend on Iran sanctions and related financial issues ahead of Trump-Xi. India IPO Watch: Hero Motors raised about ₹300 crore from anchor investors ahead of its Sept 16-18 IPO subscription. Cross-border Investment (India-Vietnam): India and Vietnam reviewed trade, investment, defence co-production, connectivity and agreed to mark 2027 as the Year of India-Vietnam Friendship.

India–New Zealand Trade: The India-New Zealand free trade agreement is expected to come into force from Oct 19, with duty-free access for 100% of India’s exports and NZ pledging $20bn investment over 15 years. India UPI Fees: India’s payments regulator is consulting banks and payment firms on charges for large UPI transactions after legislation allowed fees on payments above ₹2,000; sources say a 0.4% rate is being discussed, with peer-to-peer likely staying free. Japan Property: Japan’s land prices rose 1.5% in the year to July 1 for a fifth straight year, led by Tokyo–Osaka–Nagoya and tourist areas, while growth outside major metros remains weaker. China Growth Signal: China’s retail sales growth slowed to 0.4% in August and fixed-asset investment contracted 7.2%, underscoring weak demand even as industrial output and high-tech manufacturing stay resilient. China–EU Trade Friction: China urged the EU to avoid escalating trade disputes in a call with France, as Brussels tightens screening and anti-subsidy steps, especially around EVs. Japan Energy Finance: Nozomi Energy reached financial close on a 50MW/196MWh BESS in Oita with Aozora Bank backing, targeting commissioning in Q3 2028. Cross-border Currency Push: BRICS partners are expanding payment and currency cooperation to reduce dollar dependence, including more bilateral arrangements and greater use of local currencies. China Yuan Expansion: China plans to promote wider global use of the yuan while keeping exchange-rate stability, as part of broader financial-sector opening. Germany–China Auto Measures: Germany is weighing tougher economic security steps that could include new tariffs on Chinese plug-in hybrid vehicles and tighter investment screening. Asia Mobility Deal: Yadea and Spiro signed a partnership to scale battery-swapping electric two-wheelers across Africa. Market Watch: Malaysia’s ringgit opened slightly higher ahead of key Fed and BoJ decisions, with oil supply risks keeping inflation sensitivity in focus.

AI & Markets/US-China Rivalry: US and China trade barbs over AI “slowdown” and regulation, with Trump calling the debate a “sick conspiracy” tied to China’s advantage while Beijing rejects “threat” narratives and warns against moves that could “strangle” Chinese tech. BRICS Diplomacy & Tech: Xi Jinping used BRICS to push “greater BRICS” cooperation, spotlighting open-source and inclusive AI plus trade, digital industry and smart manufacturing—Chinese analysts say India-China AI collaboration hinges on political trust. Energy/Defense Supply Chains: The US plans a $450m Elmet investment to expand domestic tungsten processing and reduce reliance on China-linked supply for defense programs. Nuclear Investment: Japan’s $550bn US investment push is set to target another nuclear tranche, with SMR-focused funding expected to support power for the AI competition. Malaysia-India Trade & Semiconductors: Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim urged tighter India-Malaysia synergy in E&E and semiconductors, while also flagging remaining market-access frictions like airline restrictions. Indonesia Finance Shakeup: Indonesia sacked finance minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa and appointed deputy Suahasil Nazara, signaling fiscal credibility as investors watch deficit discipline. Banking/Fintech: Bank of India unveiled 12 digital banking initiatives at Global FinTech Fest 2026, including payments, cards, digital currency and AI-linked customer engagement. Markets/FX: Malaysia’s ringgit rose versus most major and ASEAN currencies as Brent crude climbed and traders looked ahead to FOMC and BOJ decisions. Corporate/Investing: Asia Pacific Wire & Cable reported AGM approvals and H1 2026 revenue up 17.6% to $267.5m; BHEL approved a further ₹65 crore equity contribution to its NTPC JV to settle urgent liabilities. Retail Investing: Dangote’s refinery opened to public ownership in Nigeria, aiming to raise about $1.6bn from retail investors.

AI & National Security: China’s top intelligence official Chen Yixin warned AI is becoming a new arena for strategic rivalry, urging safeguards and governance as Beijing pushes AI cooperation at BRICS. Capital Markets: Zhipu AI (Z.AI) is raising about US$5bn via a Hong Kong share placement and convertible bonds to fund next-gen models and computing infrastructure, while Z.AI’s peer Zhipu joins a broader China AI fundraising push. Banking & FX: China expanded cross-border cash pooling rules for multinationals, effective Monday, letting groups manage yuan and foreign currency funds through a single account. Payments Expansion: Kazakhstan plans QR-code cross-border payments with China by end-2026, aiming to broaden yuan use beyond trade. BRICS Finance Agenda: BRICS reaffirmed support for MSMEs, focusing on affordable trade and formal finance, including work on invoice discounting mechanisms. India Growth Watch: India’s space economy could jump from $8.4bn to $44bn by 2033, driven by commercialisation of space-enabled services. Markets & Sentiment: Asia markets were mixed as AI slowdown debate hit tech and financial stocks, with SoftBank shares falling after OpenAI investor-linked calls to slow frontier AI. Deal Flow (Philippines): iSON Group plans about $75m investment in the Philippines tied to BRICS outreach, targeting agri-solar, healthcare teleconsults, and BPO expansion. Energy/Environment Risk: Japan’s growing demand for Indonesian wood pellets is linked to rising deforestation pressures, according to satellite analysis.

BRICS & India-China reset: Xi wrapped up his New Delhi BRICS visit with five “greater BRICS” initiatives on AI, trade, smart manufacturing and talent, while Modi pushed “differences should not become disputes” and reiterated border-resolution language as both sides seek managed competition. Middle East security & trade routes: China floated a new Middle East security architecture tied to development and maritime trade as Egypt and Gulf states hedge US risk. AI race & policy clash: US Treasury chief Scott Bessent warned the US can’t lose the AI race to China, after US agencies alleged six China-based AI firms ran industrial-scale model “distillation” campaigns; meanwhile Trump downplayed AI safety curbs, saying he wants to keep America ahead. India market regulation: SEBI stepped up scrutiny of Wall Street players, including allegations of manipulative trades involving a JPMorgan unit, signaling tougher accountability for foreign firms. Banking tech push: Axis Bank and Hitachi Payment Services unveiled AI-powered tools for conversational banking and merchant payments. Corporate/FDI signals: Odisha touted major UAE outreach results (with opposition disputing claims), while Lenskart raised its stake in Ajna to 9.01% and HeidelbergCement India signed a 50-year limestone mining deal in Madhya Pradesh. Local/global finance links: Hong Kong said it’s deepening Belt and Road and Global South ties across finance and I&T, supported by its 15th Five-Year Plan.

BRICS Summit Watch: Modi warned that geopolitical tensions, supply-chain shocks and climate crises are hitting the Global South, while leaders agreed on a New Delhi Declaration that pushes local-currency trade and calls for West Asia de-escalation. India–China Reset: Xi met Modi on BRICS sidelines after seven years, with political engagement improving (border trade and flights), but trade imbalances and heavy Chinese import dependence remain a key economic friction point. Payments & De-dollarisation: India’s MEA reiterated there’s no plan for a common BRICS currency “as of now,” keeping the focus on payments and local settlements. Banking & Capital Markets: RBI rejected Tata Sons’ bid for a listing waiver, raising pressure for a public listing and more scrutiny of the Tata holding structure. Cross-border Finance: South Korea won a final ICSID ruling in a 264.1bn-won investor-state dispute against a Chinese investor, reinforcing that treaty protection doesn’t cover investments violating domestic law. ASEAN Economic Agenda: The Philippines will host major ASEAN Economic Ministers meetings on integration and disaster resilience ahead of the ASEAN Summit. Corporate Moves: PwC India plans a consulting-focused JV with PwC US, targeting 40,000 staff and operating control for the Indian side. Energy Storage Angle: India’s battery demand story is widening beyond EVs as grid-scale storage needs rise with renewables.

BRICS Diplomacy & Finance: BRICS leaders in New Delhi adopted the “New Delhi Declaration,” calling for UN Security Council reform and urging maximum restraint over West Asia tensions, while pushing local-currency trade and payments over a common currency. India–China Reset: PM Modi and Xi Jinping met on BRICS sidelines, both backing a fair, mutually acceptable border resolution and “peace and tranquillity” in border areas, signaling steady progress despite unresolved disputes. Tokenization Push: India’s SEBI and RBI launched “Demat 2.0,” a pilot to issue, hold, trade and settle tokenized corporate bonds inside regulated market infrastructure, with early issuances totaling about ₹1,025 crore. FX & Liquidity Watch: India’s forex reserves hit a record ~$785.7bn on strong FCNR(B) inflows, even as the RBI moved to drain excess liquidity via a large OMO securities sale. Banking Deal: Bangladesh Bank signed with Bank Asia to lend to CMSMEs at 9% under a Tk 5,000 crore refinance fund. Corporate Governance: HDFC Bank’s board approved leadership succession steps, including RBI-submitted candidates for MD & CEO. AI Safety Angle: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said a U.S.-China AI standards pact could be “easy to agree” and help reduce risk.

BRICS Summit, India’s chairmanship: Chinese President Xi Jinping landed in New Delhi for the 18th BRICS summit and is set to meet PM Narendra Modi later today, with both sides expected to focus on trade and border issues as the bloc opens under India’s leadership. India–Malaysia ties: Modi met Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim ahead of BRICS, reviewing cooperation across trade, investment, defence, semiconductors, digital economy and fintech, and noting Malaysia’s support for an Indian consulate in Kota Kinabalu. India–Ethiopia push: Modi also met Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed, with talks spanning defence cooperation, technology transfer, capacity building and mining. Forex and banking: India’s forex reserves hit a record $785.7bn, helped by RBI measures to boost dollar inflows via FCNR(B) deposits, while the RBI also moved to manage liquidity through bond sales. FinTech direction: A PwC read says India’s next FinTech phase will be driven by profitability, governance and resilience as funding shifts toward proven models. Market/Trade friction: EU aluminium scrap rules are again in the spotlight in India’s trade talks, with Brussels pausing a levy after negotiations pressure. AI in investing: In China, traders are increasingly using AI agents to speed up research and execution, signalling a shift in how investment decisions get made. Regional energy connectivity: Malaysia is pushing renewable energy and connectivity through ASEAN sub-regional plans like IMT-GT, with a focus on the ASEAN Power Grid and physical links.

EU-India Trade Deal: The European Commission has moved the India-EU Free Trade Agreement to the EU Council for approval, aiming to cut tariffs on 96% of EU goods exports and save about €4bn a year in duties. India FX Watch: India’s foreign exchange reserves jumped by $44.9bn to a record $785.71bn, driven mainly by higher foreign currency assets, while gold fell for the week. BRICS Diplomacy: Leaders are converging on New Delhi for the 18th BRICS Summit, with India pushing “economic bridges” and Jaishankar urging transparent trade and investment to manage volatility; Modi and Xi are reportedly working on a bilateral meeting. Tokenised Bonds in India: SEBI’s Demat 2.0 tokenised bond pilot gained momentum with two more issuances, while RBI signals gold could be next for tokenisation. China Auto Rules: China’s new EV and autonomous-vehicle policy would shift legal responsibility for fully autonomous traffic violations to automakers, not drivers. US-China Business Sentiment: A survey shows US firms’ confidence in China rebounded to the highest since 2021 as profitability improved and trade tensions eased. Banking Legal Update (India): The ED told India’s Bombay High Court that recovering bank dues in Vijay Mallya’s case doesn’t end the PMLA proceedings. Azerbaijan-Asia Capital Link: Azerbaijan’s SOFAZ joined a China-ASEAN joint investment council, reflecting growing cross-Asia capital flows tied to major trade corridors.

BRICS Summit Watch: India’s BRICS Business Forum is underway in New Delhi as leaders gear up for the Sept 12-13 summit, with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin set to attend and push trade, investment and Global South cooperation. Payments & De-dollarisation: India is pressing for CBDC links across BRICS to speed cross-border payments, while officials also float broader moves to link payment systems and use local currencies to reduce dollar dependence. Banking Disruption: A nationwide strike by India’s bank unions is hitting public sector banks, with cash services and branch operations disrupted while digital channels keep running; unions are demanding a five-day workweek and wage/pension fixes. Green Finance in Hong Kong: HKMA is urging smarter, data-driven finance for the net-zero transition at its Green Fintech Symposium. India Investment & Infrastructure: KPMG flags Mumbai as a cost-competitive data centre hub, while China’s NDRC recommends 36 private-investment projects worth 61.4bn yuan to spur funding. Tech & Markets: OpenAI launches ChatGPT for financial services using licensed market data; Japan’s BOJ is set to raise rates to 1.25% amid oil-driven inflation. Energy & Industry: China’s coal-heavy power expansion contrasts with US reliability and rising electricity costs, while Japan’s corporate goods prices jump 7.6% on Middle East-linked input costs.

BRICS & Payments: India is pushing to link CBDCs across BRICS to speed cross-border payments, but adoption and interoperability hurdles could slow progress as leaders meet in New Delhi. Geopolitics & Energy Costs: Oil jumped above $105 a barrel on West Asia shipping risks, lifting India’s crude import costs and raising inflation pressure. Modi’s High-Stakes Meetings: PM Modi is set to meet Russia’s Putin and Iran’s Pezeshkian during the BRICS summit amid Ukraine peace efforts and a wider West Asia escalation. Digital Finance for Businesses: Central Bank of India launched “Bharat Connect for Business” with NPCI Bharat BillPay to enable digital invoicing, payments, collections and settlements for MSMEs. Banking Tech Upgrade: DBS Bank India expanded DBS MAX with Juspay-powered merchant collections for smarter routing and unified visibility across gateways. Investment Push in India-Russia Trade: India urged Russia to manufacture in India and use industrial corridors to unlock trade potential. Asia Deal Flow: Malaysia approved 293 manufacturing projects with Indian participation worth $2.95bn as BRICS-era business ties deepen. Market Watch: Bank of Japan board member said rates may need further hikes to keep inflation from overshooting 2%.

Philippines–BRICS Pivot: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will attend the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi on Sept 12-13, with Manila framing it as a chance to engage major emerging economies—though business ties with China remain cautious amid regulatory and visa frictions. ASEAN Digital Trust: Malaysia’s M360 ASEAN 2026 pushed for faster connectivity plus public trust, arguing governments must step in where telecom build-outs aren’t commercially viable, especially for rural and remote communities. India–France Space Deals: India and France signed three space-sector agreements on satellite launches, space surveillance and microsatellite tech, including contracts worth over €5m between Safran Space and Dhruva Space. Clean Hydrogen Push: The Hydrogen Council said global clean hydrogen investment has topped $130bn, but warned many projects are being cut back due to high costs and weak demand. India Banking & Markets: UBS said sentiment toward India’s private banks is improving as branch expansion matures, while India’s NSE mega IPO plans were trimmed, shrinking the stake sale size. China Robotics & Jobs: Reuters highlighted China’s humanoid robot sprinting toward real-world reliability, while a separate policy piece reiterated employment-first priorities as a core development strategy. AI Scam Warning: Priyanka Gandhi’s office warned of AI deepfake investment scams using her face and voice, urging people to avoid unofficial platforms.

Energy & Finance: Japan plans to co-invest with private firms in overseas biomass/biofuel projects to cut fossil dependence, a move that could reshape energy-linked capital flows across Asia. Wealth & Banking: Japan’s youth wealth gap is widening as more under-30s skip tax-free NISA investing, raising questions for future retail funding demand. Cross-border Investment: Bangladesh’s commerce minister urged Hong Kong investors to step up funding in green tech, renewables, light engineering, footwear and IT, with incentives in economic zones. ASEAN Digital Resilience: Malaysia and regional experts say telecom resilience in crises needs an ecosystem—terrestrial plus satellite networks, disaster protocols, and coordinated policy—not a single technology. Cyber & Crypto Enforcement: The US dismantled a Chinese-language cybercrime operation tied to alleged $24B in illicit activity and seized $52M in crypto, while China hit back on AI “model theft” claims. Market & Capital Markets: Chime agreed to buy Stride Bank for $590m, signaling fintech’s push toward full-stack banking ownership; DeepSeek hired CITIC Securities to prepare a STAR Market IPO. India Payments & Fintech: India’s Global Fintech Fest messaging keeps focus on exporting digital financial services, with regulators also stressing investor protection alongside innovation. Trade & Food Security: ASEAN–India agriculture talks in New Delhi highlighted technology transfer and R&D to strengthen food security and value chains. Corporate/Investor Legal Notices: Rosen Law Firm issued multiple securities class-action reminders tied to US-listed firms, keeping investor risk and litigation watch high.

Private Markets: EQT launches EQT Nexus Asia, an Asia-focused evergreen PE strategy giving individual and institutional investors access across healthcare, services, tech and industrial tech in India, South Korea, Japan, Greater China, Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Infrastructure & Energy Finance: AIIB backs a green manufacturing push in Türkiye with up to $75m for a Kırklareli plant making low-emission window and paint protection films, co-financed with IFC. India Dealmaking: Kotak Alts exits HKR Roadways, selling to Cube Highways, after reviving the toll road asset and realising ~Rs 1,650 crore. Crypto Compliance: India’s FIU-IND issues notices to 15 crypto VDA providers to remove apps/URLs for PMLA non-compliance. Aviation Governance: Singapore Airlines is expected to seek tougher governance terms before any fresh Air India funding, including stronger board influence and loss-narrowing conditions. Macro/Markets: Brent breaks above $100 as West Asia conflict escalates, feeding rate-hike worries across Asia. Payments & Trade: Jio Payment Solutions launches cross-border collections for Indian exporters, targeting local-currency payment rails and T+2 settlement. Policy & Growth: IMF says AI could add 0.2–1pp to Asia’s annual growth, offsetting ageing drag. Regional Investment: Cambodia seeks to deepen China investment ties via advanced tech, domestic supply chains, skills and green infrastructure.

Cross-border Payments: Citi plans instant overseas remittances for Japanese firms using blockchain-based tokenized deposits, aiming to go live this year. India Health & Human Capital: India expands its medical, nursing and allied workforce to improve access to specialised care, while Rashtriya Poshan Maah spotlights Anganwadi Centres as nutrition and early childhood hubs. China Capital Markets: CICC advances a state-backed merger plan to become China’s No. 4 broker by assets, reflecting Beijing’s push for bigger securities players. China Trade & Macro: China’s exports rose 25% in August as car and chip demand stayed strong, even as domestic demand remains soft. India Energy Policy: ICRIER suggests a temporary ethanol blending cut to 15% from 20% during feedstock shortages or food-price shocks, keeping 20% as a long-term goal. Airline Finance Watch: Singapore says Air India losses won’t threaten SIA’s essential services in Singapore, defending the investment rationale. Trade & Markets: South Africa signs a protocol for the first China market access for cherries, while JLR cuts about 4,000 jobs amid financial strain and trade/tariff headwinds. Policy & Payments Push: Modi urges UPI to become the default rails for cross-border payments to serve India’s diaspora.