AGP Executive Report

FX & Macro: China’s yuan weakened to 6.8203 per USD, with the central parity rate set by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. Telecom Opening: China moved to open value-added telecom services to foreign investors, removing ownership caps in pilot zones and approving 166 overseas-funded firms. China Growth Push: Beijing is mulling multi-trillion-yuan “Six Networks” investment—water, power grids, computing, next-gen telecom, urban pipelines and logistics—to shore up demand and stabilize growth. Tech & Markets: Two Chinese memory chipmakers, CXMT and YMTC, are preparing blockbuster IPOs on Shanghai’s STAR Market amid AI-driven demand, though liquidity concerns are rising. China Regulation: China appointed Ding Xiangqun as the Communist Party committee chief of the National Financial Regulatory Administration. India Rates/Inflation Watch: India’s growth could slip toward 6% as elevated oil prices persist, with risks worsening if West Asia tensions drag on. Capital Flows: India is set to scrap capital gains tax on FPI investments in government securities to support overseas inflows. Debt Markets: IIFL Finance raised $500m via dollar bond sales, signaling a reopening for Indian issuers after the West Asia shock. Aviation Fuel Shield: India approved a Rs 10,000 crore ATF price stabilisation fund to protect airlines from West Asia-linked fuel volatility. Banking Deal: MUFG’s $4.4bn investment is expected to lift Shriram Finance’s growth and lower funding costs. Geopolitics & Risk: Asia stocks slipped as US-Iran tensions flared again, pushing markets back into risk-off mode. Pacific Environment: Fiji rejected an Australian billionaire’s plan to ship and burn regional waste, citing health, hazardous ash and public risk concerns.

Aviation Fuel Shock Relief: India approved a $1bn support package for airlines, offering interest-free advances to state oil marketing firms to steady aviation turbine fuel prices after Iran-war disruptions and Strait of Hormuz bottlenecks pushed ATF costs more than double since March. Central Banking Clarity: The RBI denied reports it sold gold reserves, saying physical holdings stayed unchanged at 880.52 tonnes in April, while officials also highlighted gold’s rising share in FX reserves. Remittances Push: BRAC Bank set a goal to become Bangladesh’s largest remittance bank by 2028, citing five straight years of growth and expanding exchange-house partnerships to speed transfers for Non-Resident Bangladeshis. Trade Deal Boost: India-Oman CEPA came into force, granting duty-free access across most tariff lines and covering key sectors from engineering and pharma to processed foods and mobility provisions. Cross-Border Finance Controls: Hong Kong banks tightened mainland-linked account access as Beijing reviews capital outflow rules, with some branches reportedly suspending new Hong Kong investment account openings for mainland clients. Energy Storage Buildout: Japan’s Itochu-led consortium broke ground on a 67MW/230.1MWh battery project in Fukuoka for 2027 operations, targeting multiple power markets. Digital Economy & Materials: Malaysia’s Gas Malaysia deployed Asia Pacific’s first LOOP system to turn methane into graphene and hydrogen-rich gas, while Uzbekistan doubled down on IT Park to grow digital services exports.

Japan Banking: Japan’s megabanks and insurers are accelerating sales of strategic shareholdings, cashing in on soaring stock prices and setting up a new wave of capital deployment decisions. China Outbound Rules: China expanded outbound investment regulations to explicitly cover individual investors, raising compliance pressure for tech founders and even ordinary investors. India Banking Scrutiny: IndusInd Bank faces fresh whistleblower allegations tied to alleged insider trading, governance lapses, and derivatives accounting issues, with multiple regulators pulled in. Japan Fiscal Support: Japan approved a 3.1 trillion yen extra budget to cushion households from Middle East-linked inflation, adding fresh focus on bond issuance and fiscal trajectory. India Trade & FX: India tightened silver import rules by adding more restricted categories and requiring prior DGFT authorisation, aiming to curb shipments and ease rupee pressure. Asia Wealth Watch: ByteDance co-founder Zhang Yiming overtook Mukesh Ambani to become Asia’s second-richest, boosted by ByteDance valuation and AI chatbot momentum. Japan Corporate Policy: Japan firms begin 2027 graduate recruitment with some abolishing “transfers without consent,” reshaping hiring expectations. M&A/Capital Markets: Blackstone raised $13.1bn for its Asia PE fund, exceeding target, while Japan’s extra budget and Asia AI-led equity optimism keep investors focused on growth and risk.

RBI Outlook & Fraud Watch: The Reserve Bank of India projected 6.9% GDP growth for FY26-27 but flagged rising risks from geopolitics, energy costs and market volatility, while bank fraud reported jumped to ₹48,021 crore across 10,111 cases in FY25-26. Markets & Flows: India’s stock-market rank slipped to seventh as AI-fuelled rallies lifted Taiwan and South Korea and foreign investors pulled back. Trade & Deals: India and the UK discussed advancing shared business priorities under the India-UK CETA framework, while India-US trade talks inched toward a first-phase agreement. CEPA Boosts Gulf Links: Oman-India CEPA took effect, promising duty-free access for most Indian exports and new trade and investment momentum. Energy Finance: FinDev Canada announced CAD 2bn paid-in capital plus CAD 732m concessional funding to scale climate finance across Asia-Pacific and emerging markets. Corporate & Capital Markets: CMR Green Technologies raised Rs 188 crore in its IPO anchor round; Blackstone also raised $13.1bn for its largest Asia private equity fund. Sports Media Rights: FIFA struck a last-minute deal with Zee for 2026-2034 World Cup and related event broadcast rights in India. China Policy Shift: China tightened outbound investment rules with a stronger national-security lens, adding friction for overseas tech deals. Regional Banking/Scams: Malaysia remanded 57 suspects in a suspected online investment scam syndicate targeting South Korea.

Green Transition: China is accelerating its low-carbon shift with green energy buildout and tighter carbon controls under the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). Pacific Media Finance: Pacific broadcasters are under pressure from falling revenue and higher costs, with calls for stronger business models and regional cooperation at the Pacific Media Partnership Conference in Port Moresby. India Food Security Tech Gamble: India’s SARTHAK-PDS (Rs 25,530 crore through March 2031) aims to cut leakages and fraud by embedding AI and blockchain into the Public Distribution System. China Outbound Rules: Beijing rolled out sweeping outbound investment regulations from July 1, tightening controls on overseas tech and data transfers and adding a retaliation toolkit. Hong Kong Property Shock: Mainland buyers’ record HK home spending faces new curbs on cross-border funding, likely hitting luxury deposits hardest. AI & Capital Markets: Zhipu AI plans a Shanghai Sci-Tech Board listing after a surge in AI-related IPO appetite; Unitree’s STAR Market IPO also cleared, with Nvidia backing its humanoid robot platform. Deals & Expansion: MUFG readies a $250m India startup fund; Blackstone raised $13.1b for its biggest Asia PE fund; Mynt signed Japan pacts to expand GCash and financial inclusion. Banking Leadership: Canara Bank named Brajesh Kumar Singh as MD and CEO. Markets Watch: Asian stocks opened cautiously as Middle East jitters offset AI optimism; South Korea’s inflation accelerated, reinforcing a hawkish central bank tilt.

Cybersecurity & Accountability: The US, EU and allies blamed China-linked hackers for attacks on Microsoft Exchange servers, warning of major economic spillovers. India-US Trade Talks: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said the first bilateral trade agreement is near, with only legal-text details left as US negotiators arrive for June 2-4 talks. Banking & Markets: SEBI approval for Truehome Finance’s ~₹3,000 crore IPO is expected soon; separately, CBI arrested RCom Group MD Amitabh Jhunjhunwala in a ₹6,015 crore bank fraud case. Digital Finance: Coinbase activated direct INR bank transfers in India via IMPS, expanding access to spot and perpetual trading. Policy & Energy Costs: India kept June jet fuel prices unchanged for domestic flights, easing pressure on airline costs; gold fell Rs 2,500 as West Asia tensions lifted oil and strengthened the dollar. Regional Tech/Finance: Macao and China discussed central bank digital currency links for cross-border payments, while Kazakhstan and China pledged tighter security cooperation against cross-border crime. China-Pakistan Business: Pakistan’s market rallied on expectations of deeper China ties and faster conversion of China-visit MoUs into deals.

Energy Transition & Climate Finance: Malaysia’s Tenaga Nasional will host ETCon26 (June 3-5) with PM Anwar officiating, drawing 4,000 delegates from 60+ countries to push clean energy investment. PNG–China Trade: Papua New Guinea plans its first business forum with China in October, targeting 1,000+ participants and fast-tracking a 300-metric-tonne canning plant with government equity support. Logistics Real Estate: ESR and Mitsubishi Estate Asia will develop an A$700m prime Western Sydney logistics estate at Huntingwood, starting construction in 2H26. China Overseas Investment Rules: Beijing issued sweeping new controls on outbound deals tied to tech, data and national security, with authorisation requirements from July 1. Critical Minerals for CEPA: Chile is pitching copper, lithium and cobalt mining opportunities to India as CEPA talks near a Q3/Q4 finish. EV Supply Chain Geopolitics: A report highlights China’s dominance in EV magnet supply and the push for non-China rare-earth sourcing to reduce bottlenecks. Hong Kong Insurance Flows: Regulators tightened rules as mainland visitors face hurdles transferring funds, raising risks for Hong Kong’s insurance growth. Crypto Access in India: Coinbase launches with direct INR deposits/withdrawals via IMPS, aiming to cut reliance on P2P workarounds. Markets & Rates Watch: ASX futures point to a softer open as investors track Middle East ceasefire talks and central bank signals; Japan’s Q1 capex growth stalls amid Iran-war uncertainty. Tourism Hit by Iran War: Soaring jet fuel and uncertainty are straining Southeast Asia’s tourism economies, threatening summer demand.

India Energy & Cities: India targets 100 GW nuclear power by 2047 as it plans to lift generation capacity toward ~300 GW next year; Tripura gets Rs 1,200-crore urban and power initiatives. RBI & Markets: RBI flags services exports and steady remittances as buffers for India’s current account in 2026-27, even as forex reserves slip to a one-year low of $681.4b amid rupee pressure. Trade Deals: India-Oman CEPA origin rules are notified for June 1 implementation, while India and the US kick off four-day talks in Delhi to finalise an interim trade pact. Banking Operations: RBI’s June 2026 holiday calendar shows banks shut up to 11 days in multiple states, with digital channels still running. Currency Modernisation: RBI is revisiting polymer banknotes, potentially starting with Rs 10 and Rs 20. ASEAN Digital: ASEAN DEFA negotiations are concluded for a November signing, covering AI, fintech and trusted cross-border digital payments. China Economy & AI: China’s May factory activity softens; MiniMax prepares for a mainland China listing after its Hong Kong debut. Global Finance: EM distressed-debt funds are turning away new cash as inflows make it harder to deploy and exit positions. Ports & Industry: India launches a Logistics Port Performance Index and digital port initiatives; Andhra Pradesh clears its first PM-SETU strategic investment plan for the Visakhapatnam ITI cluster.

Retail & Consumer Markets: Inditex’s Zara JV in India (Inditex Trent Retail) reported its weakest run since the pandemic, with FY26 revenue slipping 1.2% to Rs 2,749 crore and profit down 32% to Rs 204 crore, as competition and digital-first rivals squeeze margins. Capital Markets: MSCI’s quarterly index rebalancing (effective Friday) triggered a late sell-off in India; the Global Standard weight fell to 12.3% from 12.4%, with foreign portfolio investors driving heavy turnover. Macro & Rates: India’s Finance Ministry flagged “cautious resilience” but warned the Strait of Hormuz disruption is the biggest swing factor for inflation and external conditions, with upstream cost pressures building. Trade & Diplomacy: US Ambassador Sergio Gor said the India-US interim trade deal is at the “last 1%,” with signing expected in weeks. Policy & Risk: EU finance ministers backed steps toward deeper financial integration, while China warned it will “strike back” if the EU adds discriminatory trade restrictions. Development Finance: SEADRIF and FAO launched Southeast Asia’s first anticipatory drought insurance pilot in Lao PDR, linking early warning data to pre-arranged payouts. Energy Transition: India’s hydrogen push is shifting from production targets to building a full commercial ecosystem—storage, transport, industrial use and export infrastructure.

Geopolitics & Defence: US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth told the Shangri-La Dialogue that ties with China are “better than in many years” under Trump, but warned of “rightful alarm” over China’s military buildup and urged Asian allies to lift defence spending toward 3.5% of GDP. Myanmar-India Pivot: Myanmar’s president Min Aung Hlaing is set to visit India, signaling renewed regional engagement and a bid to reduce China’s influence while seeking security and rare-earth access. China-EU Trade Tension: China said it will take “necessary” measures after the EU signaled tougher action over surging Chinese imports, framing it as protectionism that could hurt European consumers. India Policy & Markets: SEBI fined Suzlon Energy and executives about ₹29 crore for financial misrepresentation, while RBI data showed counterfeit detections up 5.7% in FY26, led by fake ₹500 and ₹20 notes. Energy Security: IMF/World Bank/IEA warned that if Strait of Hormuz shipping doesn’t normalize, fuel security risks could rise sharply during peak summer demand. Asia Finance & Tech: Japan confirmed record yen intervention of 11.73 trillion yen over April-28 to May-29; Fujitsu, SMBC Group and SoftBank plan a Japan health data/AI platform. China Finance Crackdown: China removed a senior financial regulator after a corruption probe, underscoring ongoing enforcement in the sector. Clean Tech & Industry: JA Solar and Gold Stone said a new solar cell hit 28.2% efficiency, while India is weighing fiscal support to localize EV battery supply chains.

Wealth & Capital Markets: CICC wrapped up its 2026 London Wealth Management Forum, spotlighting China-Britain financial cooperation and multi-asset allocation as China deepens capital market reform. China Diplomacy & Business: A steady stream of foreign leaders is reshaping China’s diplomatic calendar, with officials and firms using state visits to unlock trade and investment deals. China-Germany Trade: A Guangzhou roundtable drew German and Chinese companies to push deeper cooperation in digitalization and decarbonization, with Guangdong positioning itself as a key bridge. China Financial Regulation: China appointed veteran banker Ding Xiangqun as Communist Party chief of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, signaling leadership stabilization amid a broader financial cleanup. Japan Banking Cybersecurity: Japan’s megabanks are set to access an OpenAI model via a “Trusted Access for Cyber” program to harden defenses. India Macro & FX: India’s forex reserves fell $7.51bn to $681.38bn, while RBI reported FX trading gains surged 52% to $17.7bn in FY26. India Rates & Risk: India forecasts the weakest monsoon in 11 years, raising food and inflation risks. Trade Talks: US-India interim trade deal is “close,” with an agreement expected in coming weeks/months. Quad Infrastructure: Quad plans a Fiji port infrastructure push, adding a new Pacific flashpoint as China warns against bloc confrontation. Wealth Growth: BCG projects India will add $2tn+ in financial wealth by 2030, creating over a million new dollar millionaires.

Philippines–Japan Security & Tax: President Marcos met Japan’s Kishida and, with PM Sanae Takaichi, announced talks on a General Security of Military Information Agreement, maritime border delimitation, and destroyer transfer—while also signing an avoidance of double taxation deal to boost cross-border investment. India Currency Modernisation: RBI is reportedly preparing polymer rupee notes, aiming for longer-lasting, cleaner cash as cash demand rises and cotton-based notes get costly to maintain. EU Antitrust on China Retail: JD.com says its Ceconomy bid won’t be funded by Chinese subsidies, as EU regulators open a full Foreign Subsidies probe that could force concessions. MSCI Rebalance Flows: MSCI’s May 29 reshuffle is set to drive $800m–$1bn passive outflows from India, with heavy churn in the Smallcap index. China Lending Shift: China’s regulator is pushing banks to prioritise higher-quality small-business credit over loan-growth targets. APAC Data-Centre Push: Telangana says Hyderabad has $10–20bn in data-centre/AI investment pipeline, targeting ~5GW by 2030. India Fintech for Teens: Paytm launches “Pocket Money” using UPI Circle for supervised teen payments with parental limits and tracking. Aviation Cost Pressure: Air India and IndiGo are cutting routes/capacity as fuel costs and West Asia disruption bite. Guam Tourism Budget: Guam Visitors Bureau says finances remain healthy despite April collection dips, citing seasonality and typhoon impacts.

Serbia–China Deal Flow: Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic wrapped up a five-day visit to China in Shanghai, saying new Chinese investments in Serbia could reach “hundreds of millions of euros,” with robotics and tech modernization a key theme. Fund Management Shake-up: Fidelity International’s China head James Sun has left after about a year; Edmond Tan becomes acting general manager as the unit manages 4.5 billion yuan in assets. AI for Banks: Japan’s MUFG, SMBC and Mizuho are set to use OpenAI’s latest model to strengthen defenses against cyberattacks. Cross-border Payments: Tencent says Weixin Pay will connect with PayPal via QR codes for U.S. users, using a central-bank-guided cross-border gateway. India Capital Markets Debate: Investor Vijay Kedia urged scrapping India’s LTCG tax on listed equities, arguing it discourages patient, long-term investing. India–Korea Trade Talks: India and South Korea held the 12th round of IK CEPA upgrade talks in New Delhi, focusing on goods/services, rules of origin and origin provisions. China Market Access: CSRC says foreign investors hold over 4 trillion yuan in free-float A shares, highlighting growing participation via reforms. EU–China Trade Tensions: China’s foreign ministry pushed back on EU trade tools, calling them protectionism and urging respect for free trade.

Philippines–Japan Deal Push: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. says the Philippines is moving to its highest-tier “comprehensive strategic partnership” with Japan, while a Tokyo business roundtable secured about $3.4bn in Japanese investment pledges, aimed at jobs, industry upgrades and tech transfer. Pacific Finance & Risk: Tuvalu’s climate trust fund worth $200m is being reviewed after findings showed fossil-fuel exposure via stakes in major oil and gas assets. Pacific Insurance Branding: Fiji’s PM Sitiveni Rabuka launched TISA Insurance (Fiji) Limited, rebranding Capital Insurance into a unified Pacific identity while assuring policyholders continuity. Hong Kong Compliance: Hong Kong’s banking regulator told locally incorporated banks to tighten controls for investment accounts opened by mainland Chinese clients, signaling a broader crackdown on cross-border securities activity. China Market Mood: PDD Holdings reported weaker Q1 results as domestic demand stayed soft, while investors’ appetite for China assets remains rising, per JPMorgan. India Trade Talks: The US and India will hold another round of Bilateral Trade Agreement discussions in New Delhi from June 1–4, focusing on an interim pact and broader economic security alignment. Semiconductor Push: India’s MeitY launched a single-window Investors Support portal under the India Semiconductor Mission to reduce friction for semiconductor investors. Markets & Energy: Asia shares hesitated as Middle East tensions and US-Iran headlines rattled oil and rate expectations.

Philippines–Japan Tax Deal: Marcos’ Tokyo visit is set to produce a new double taxation convention, aimed at replacing the outdated 1980 framework and boosting cross-border investment and infrastructure cooperation. MSME Financing in Malaysia: Malaysia’s KUSKOP backed CGC’s credit guarantees and financing referral tools to help micro and small firms access working capital amid West Asia-linked cost pressures. Aviation Cost Squeeze: Air India and IndiGo are cutting June–July flying schedules as ATF prices, airspace limits and weaker demand bite, with Air India trimming domestic capacity by about a quarter. India–US Trade Talks: A US delegation led by the chief negotiator will visit India June 1–4 to finalise an interim trade agreement and push the broader bilateral trade framework. Banking Risk Watch: Moody’s flags Indian banks as among APAC’s more exposed to a prolonged West Asia crisis via energy-import inflation and rising borrower stress. Capital Markets: Coal India’s offer-for-sale draws heavy bids (Rs 19,000 crore on day one) and the government plans to use the oversubscription option. Tech & Cloud Investment: Amazon plans to invest over $33bn in Southeast Asia cloud and AI infrastructure through 2039, targeting jobs and data-centre supply chains. China Regulatory Reset: China’s regulator fined Futu and UP Fintech for unlicensed cross-border stock trading, clearing an overhang as they wind down China services. Climate Pressure: India’s monsoon forecast points to below-normal rains in 2026, with El Niño risks raising heatwave and food-price concerns.

Markets Rally on AI Semis: US stocks hit fresh record highs as tech led gains, with Micron surging after UBS lifted its price target, while oil and the dollar stayed headline-driven amid US-Iran de-escalation chatter. India Airlines Cut Capacity: Air India and IndiGo plan to reduce domestic flights from June 1 for three months as ATF costs jumped and summer demand softens. Critical Minerals Push: India and the US signed a critical-minerals framework, and the Quad backed a broader critical-minerals and maritime-surveillance agenda, aiming to diversify supply chains. SEBI Mutual-Fund Reform: SEBI floated changes that could let mutual-fund flows support eligible NGOs and enable employer-linked payroll contributions. China Tech & Policy Crosscurrents: Huawei unveiled a chip “workaround” to reduce US leverage, while China’s industrial profits rose fastest in over two years—yet recovery looks uneven. Corporate/Legal Watch: Schall Law Firm opened a fraud probe into UP Fintech after China’s crackdown on cross-border brokers.